Forecasters and prediction markets make Democrats strong favourites to win the House on Tuesday 3 November, and narrower favourites to win the Senate, where soaring diesel costs have put farm-state seats in play. For gold, history suggests the result matters less than the uncertainty around it.
Key figures
- Chance Democrats win the House: 80% (Decision Desk HQ) to 91% (Kalshi traders)
- Chance Democrats win the Senate: 57% (Decision Desk HQ) to 64% (Kalshi)
- Seats Democrats need: a net gain of about 3 in the House and 4 in the Senate
- Midterms since 1938 in which the president’s party lost House seats: 20 of 22
- US diesel: about $6.33 a gallon (AAA, 16 October), near September’s record of $6.53
- Gold, 1 troy ounce: $4,060.84
Forecasts as of 26–27 October 2026; gold at the New York close on Tuesday 27 October.
The forecasts
Decision Desk HQ’s model gives Democrats an 80% chance of winning the House, with about 238 seats; 218 is a majority. Traders on Kalshi put it at 90.6%, also with about 238 seats on average. Republicans won the House with 220 seats in 2024, so Democrats need a net gain of only a handful.
The Senate is tighter: 57% for Democrats in the Decision Desk HQ model and 64% on Kalshi. Republicans won a 53–47 majority in 2024, and Vice President JD Vance breaks ties, so Democrats need a net gain of four seats.
These are probabilities, not results. A 20% chance comes up one time in five, and several Senate races are within the polls’ margins of error.
The farm belt and diesel
Diesel is the issue that has put Republican seats in play in states President Trump won easily. The national average reached a record $6.53 a gallon in September and was about $6.33 in mid-October, Roll Call reported, citing AAA. Farmers and candidates blame the Iran war and disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. A CQ Roll Call analysis estimates US farms would spend about $8 billion more a year on diesel at early-October prices than at January 2025 prices.
Three farm-state Senate races have tightened (Newsweek, 13 October):
- Kansas: Sen. Roger Marshall (R) against Democrat Adam Hamilton. Cook rates it a toss-up, and the FiftyPlusOne polling average had Hamilton ahead by 1.6 points. Kansas has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932.
- Nebraska: Sen. Pete Ricketts (R) against independent Dan Osborn, not a Democrat. Inside Elections rates it Lean Republican; Cook and Sabato rate it Likely Republican.
- Iowa: an open seat after Sen. Joni Ernst’s retirement, between Rep. Ashley Hinson (R) and state Rep. Josh Turek (D). Cook rates it a toss-up. Of 12 recent polls, seven favoured Hinson and five Turek.
The administration has responded on three fronts:
- Dyed diesel. An executive order lets red-dyed diesel, which is exempt from the federal fuel tax and normally limited to farm and other off-road use, be used on highways from 1 October to 31 December. The IRS has waived penalties and plans to postpone the tax, not cancel it, while it explores ways to remove the obligation. Because farm diesel was already tax-exempt, farmers and truckers told PBS the order offers them little relief.
- Direct aid. On 19 October the president announced an $8 billion Harvest Fuel Relief Program, paid as one-time payments through the Farm Service Agency.
- Exports. China has committed to buy 25 million tonnes of US soybeans in the 2026–27 season, part of at least $17 billion a year of farm purchases pledged after the September Trump–Xi meeting. About 15 million tonnes had been booked by 21 October.
Early voting
Nearly 33 million Americans had voted by Tuesday afternoon, according to the University of Florida’s Election Lab. In the 27 states that register voters by party, 45% of early ballots came from registered Democrats, 31% from Republicans and 24% from neither.
A PBS News/NPR/Marist poll taken 19–20 October shows why that needs care. The 21% of likely voters who had already voted backed Democrats by 68% to 31%, but those who had not yet voted were split 48% to 48%. Republicans tend to vote in person on Election Day, so early ballots show who has voted, not how the count will end. Overall, the poll gave Democrats an 8-point lead among likely voters.
What history says
Since 1938 the president’s party has lost House seats in 20 of 22 midterms, about 91% of them. The two exceptions came when the president was unusually popular: Bill Clinton in 1998, with 66% approval, and George W. Bush in 2002, at 63% after the 11 September attacks (Brookings). President Trump’s approval among likely voters is 40% in the Marist poll. In his first midterm, in 2018, Republicans lost 41 House seats.
What it means for gold
Gold’s record around midterms is mildly positive. Since 1970, gold was higher three months after a midterm in 9 of 14 cases, with a median gain of 3.9%, against 1.0% for any three-month period. Fourteen cases is a small sample. The same history for silver and for bitcoin after US elections is on the price sites.
For markets, a slow count may matter more than the winner. Close House races, recounts and court challenges can leave control unclear for days, and the new Congress is not sworn in until 3 January 2027. A Democratic House would return Washington to divided government for the last two years of the president’s term. In the meantime, the Federal Reserve’s decision on Wednesday and Thursday’s PCE inflation figures are the nearer tests for gold.
Data: Corgano Gold Price — gold price history, as of October 28, 2026, 22:52 UTC.
Forecasts, polls and prices come from the sources linked above and the Corgano price sites, as of 27 October 2026. This article is commentary on markets and politics; it is not investment, tax or financial advice. Research and drafting assisted by AI; reviewed and edited by Frank Ivancic.
