Rate-hike bets and 5% Treasury yields have pulled gold well below its January record. Central banks are still buying at a steady pace. Silver has no such buyer behind it.
Gold now trades at Gold per ounce: $3,880.41 (+0.10% today) Live gold price →, far from the record of about $5,595 an ounce it set on January 29. Its highest daily close on record is Gold's highest daily close on record: $5,318.40 per ounce, on 29 January 2026. (Daily closes since 2000.) Gold price history →. Silver has fallen harder: on November 11 it traded near $52.67, less than half its January record of more than $120.
The sell-off has a clear cause: rising US interest rates. But one group of buyers hasn’t stopped. Central banks bought more gold in the third quarter than in any quarter since late 2024.
Inflation, yields and the Fed
The latest blow came from October’s inflation report. Consumer prices rose 0.4% in the month, above the 0.3% economists expected, though slower than September’s 0.6%. Core prices, which leave out food and energy, rose 0.3% against a 0.2% forecast.
Bonds sold off on the news. On November 10 the 10-year Treasury yield rose back above 5%. Gold pays no interest, so when a government bond pays 5% with no credit risk, holding bullion costs more. Gold fell 2.1% that day, to about $4,053.
The economy isn’t giving the Federal Reserve a reason to ease, either. Third-quarter GDP grew at a 3.4% annualized pace. The Fed raised rates in September and held them at 3.75%–4.00% on October 28. After the October inflation data, markets fully priced another quarter-point hike at the December 9 meeting. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he would back a 25 basis point increase in December, and that a 50 basis point move should be considered if core inflation came in at 0.3% or higher. It did.
US investors stepped back
The selling is clearest in American gold funds. SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), the largest gold ETF, lost about $1.8 billion in October, its biggest monthly outflow since June. The World Gold Council linked the US selling to stress in tech stocks: investors under pressure sell what they can, and gold is easy to sell.
That isn’t the whole picture. Gold ETFs worldwide still took in about $2.7 billion in October, as funds in Europe and Asia kept buying.
Central banks are still buying
The steadiest demand comes from central banks. They bought 321 tonnes in the third quarter, according to the World Gold Council, well above the five-year quarterly average of 227 tonnes. Purchases so far this year total 675 tonnes, 6% more than in the same period last year. China and Poland led the reported buying.
They plan to keep going. In the World Gold Council’s 2026 survey of central banks, a record 45% said they expect to add to their own gold reserves over the next 12 months, and 89% expect central banks’ gold holdings worldwide to rise.
This buying has changed how reserves are held. By the end of 2025, gold made up 27% of central banks’ reserve assets and US Treasuries 22%, according to the European Central Bank. Gold had last been ahead of Treasuries in 1996. Central banks now hold more than 36,000 tonnes, close to the 38,000 tonnes of the Bretton Woods era. The milestone has limits, though. Dollar assets as a whole are still the largest share of reserves, at 42%. And a Fed analysis argued that gold moved ahead of Treasuries mainly because its price rose, not because central banks bought much faster.
Central banks aren’t the only big buyers. The ECB said stablecoin issuer Tether was the largest single buyer of gold in 2025, adding more than 100 tonnes.
Silver has no such backstop
Silver gets far less support from official buyers. Central banks hold gold as a reserve asset, not silver. More than half of silver’s demand comes from industry: electronics, solar panels and other manufacturing. So silver tracks the economy and speculative money much more closely, and it has fallen much further from its January high. Its highest close this year was Silver's highest close this year: $115.08 per ounce, on 26 January 2026. Silver price history →.
One way to see the gap is the gold-silver ratio, the number of ounces of silver one ounce of gold buys: Gold/silver ratio: 79.7 — one ounce of gold buys 79.7 ounces of silver. Gold/silver ratio since 1968 →. A higher ratio means silver has been weaker than gold.
What forecasters expect
Banks still expect gold to recover some ground, though with conditions attached. Citi sees gold at $4,500 within three months and $5,000 in six to twelve months. That assumes the Strait of Hormuz reopens and the conflict between Yemen and Saudi Arabia eases by year-end. Citi’s argument is that much cheaper oil could move the Fed from raising rates to cutting them. If the conflict continues, Citi says gold risks falling back to $3,500. Even its higher target is below January’s record.
What to watch
The next test is the Fed’s December 9 decision. The November inflation report follows on December 10, the morning after the decision. Traders have also been watching $4,000, the level gold regained on November 4. Oil and the Strait of Hormuz matter too, through their effect on inflation and on the Fed’s next moves.
Sources
- World Gold Council, Gold Demand Trends Q3 2026: Central banks
- Kitco News, Gold crosses a historic milestone, Fed says “Yeah, but…” (WGC 2026 Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey)
- Northern Miner / MINING.COM, Gold overtakes US Treasuries in global reserve shift: ECB
- Investinglive, US stocks slide, yields jump after hotter-than-expected October CPI
- MarketWatch via Morningstar, Stocks fall as the 10-year Treasury yield reclaims 5%
- BabyPips, Daily market recap, November 10, 2026
- Finimize, Treasury yields slipped after PCE came in as expected
- Benzinga via Webull, Forget the ETF outflows: gold miners offer 3x leverage
- Investinglive, Citi targets $5,000 gold as a Hormuz reopening could flip the Fed
- USAGOLD daily reports, November 10, November 11 and November 5, 2026
- Live prices, highs and the gold-silver ratio: Corgano Gold Price and Silver Price
This article is for general information only. It is not investment, financial, tax or legal advice, and it is not a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell gold, silver, bitcoin or any other asset or security. Prices and figures can be delayed, change quickly and may contain errors. Forecasts and opinions quoted are those of the people and organizations named, not ours, and are not guarantees of future results. Investing involves risk, including the loss of the money you invest, and past performance does not predict future returns. Do your own research and consider speaking with a licensed financial adviser before making any financial decision.
