November 2022 Ontario Housing Market
The average home price in Ontario’s housing market has fallen on a monthly basis for eight months in a row, as Bank of Canada rate hikes and rising Canadian mortgage rates dampen the market. The average Ontario home price in November 2022 was $829,934, down 10% year over year and 0.6% from the previous month.
The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) housing market, which represented for 15% of all home sales in Canada in November 2022, continued to experience persistent price declines. The average home price in the GTA in November 2022 was $1,079,395, a 1% decrease from the previous month and a 7% decrease year over year.
The average sales price in the Ontario home market peaked in February 2022, when it hit $1,086,493 in the province. In the nine months since then, Ontario home values have fallen by 24%. The average sold price of a home in Ontario today is $256,000 less than it was during the peak in February 2022. This corresponds with the Bank of Canada’s rate hikes this year, which began in March 2022. Canadian prime rates have more than doubled since February, from 2.70% to the current prime rate of 6.45%. During the same time period, the inflation rate in Canada increased from 5.69% in February 2022 to 6.9% in October 2022.
The sustained decline in home values in November 2022 is a trend that has been observed in many of Ontario’s main property markets in recent months. Average sales prices in Toronto, Hamilton, Ottawa, and Mississauga set all-time highs in February 2022, but have subsequently declined from those highs. In Ontario, average property prices are down 10% from last year. In comparison, the national average sales price of a property in Canada is down 12% year on year. Prices in British Columbia are down 9% year on year, while prices in Alberta are down 1% year on year.
As the housing market in Ontario cools, a prevalent pattern among major Ontario cities is dramatically lower transaction counts compared to the same month last year. Home sales in Toronto are down by 50% year over year, while sales in Ottawa are down by 42% year over year. Hamilton’s housing market activity has also decreased, with sales activity down 44% year on year. Mississauga home sales are down 50% year over year, and Brampton home sales are down 66% compared to previous year.
Mississauga led the way among Ontario’s major urban housing markets in terms of annual price change for November 2022, with a 2% year-over-year fall in average sold prices, the most moderate decline. Ottawa came in second, with a 4% fall in prices year over year. Home prices in London and Hamilton fell 9% year on year, while home prices in the GTA fell 7% year on year. Brampton’s housing market experienced a 12% year-over-year reduction in average sold prices, the highest decline among Ontario’s main housing markets and more than Oshawa’s 8% year-over-year decline in prices.
This month, average sales prices in Toronto and Mississauga remain above $1 million, albeit just barely. In November 2022, the average home price in Toronto’s housing market was $1,050,788 for the City of Toronto and $1,079,395 for the GTA. With an average selling price of $999,631, Brampton fell out of the $1 million club this month. Meanwhile, Mississauga home prices grew 4% over the previous month to $1,022,312. Mississauga’s average home price fell below $1 million last month, marking the first time the city’s average sold price had fallen below $1 million since October 2021.
The housing markets in Hamilton and Ottawa continue to be less expensive alternatives to the GTA’s high home prices. The average sold price in Hamilton for November 2022 was $761,244, while the average sold price in Ottawa was $621,254. With an average price of $615,247, real estate in London, Ontario, remains reasonably priced. The average price in Oshawa was $788,890.
When comparing year-over-year price rises across the province, several property markets in Ontario continue to show noteworthy annual price fluctuations when looking at average prices. Even though the overall average is lower than last year, several areas of Ontario continue to see higher property prices than last year.
Home prices in Sarnia-Lambton are still 7% higher year over year, standing at $527,766 in November 2022. The average home price in Thunder Bay is $302,174, a 6% increase year on year. Orangeville, where property prices are down 15% year over year, and Durham Region, where prices are down 11% year over year, are two locations that have seen major shifts.